Day 202. So Unpredictable

I can’t believe how often the weatherman is goofing these days.  It’s like they hardly ever get it right.  At least in my neck of the woods.  Don’t know about yours, weather vaneobviously.  It is SO annoying.  Because I am NEVER wearing the right clothes.

When I have my umbrella, it doesn’t rain.  Even though rain was predicted.  When I go out without boots, it snows.  Even though it was supposed to be sunny and relatively mild.  Well, everything is relative.  Mild for winter.

When the temperature is supposed to be plus 6 Celsius (42.8 Fahrenheit) and I go out without a hat, I end up freezing to death.  Yesterday, the weather report I read said it was 1, but felt like minus 4.  So I wore a warm sweater, a cashmere scarf and a hat.  Plus a down-filled coat.  I was melting.  It was making me feel quite sick, actually.  Faint.  And queasy.  And by the time I got back home, I needed a shower.

What gives?

Why can’t they get it right?

The last three times we had snow, and I mean stormy — not a light dusting — it came totally out of the blue.  Wasn’t expected.  Wasn’t predicted.  Wasn’t reported.  Gusting, blowing snow.  You’re going to tell me, no one saw it coming?

Between technology and science, today we can do just about anything.  We can perform surgery remotely.  We can drive electrically-powered cars.  We’ve cloned animals.  We can journey, virtually, anywhere in the world.  We can now own a 3d printer at home.  I can send a document from my iPhone directly to my printer.  Apple is supposedly working on a watch that will talk to your phone.

But we can’t get a weather report right?

A hundred years ago, when I was a child (slight exaggeration), weather forecasting was more accurate than it is today.  And back then, what did we have to go on?  The weather guy did little more than go outside, lick his finger and stick it in the air.  And he scribbled on a black board.

Now we’ve got gizmos and gadgets and weather maps and hygrometers.  We’ve got dopplers and radiosonde and anemometers and ceilometers and satellite images.  Evaporimeters and weather charts and rainguages.  Radar.  Computers.  Formulas.  Measurements.  Rules.  Observers and experts and meteorologists all over the world.

Umpteen different types of forecasting.  Synoptic.  Statistical.  Computer.  Mapping.  Even nature.

And I can’t remember the last time I was dressed appropriately for the weather.  No wonder everyone’s sick.  And I do mean everyone.  God, every where you turn someone’s coughing or sneezing in your face.  People are dropping like flies.  I’m at the point now, where I don’t want to get too close to anyone.  No shaking of hands.  No kissing on cheeks, or anywhere else for that matter.  No hugging.  No eating off the same plate.  No sharing of dessert, either.

Keep your distance, Buster.  Better yet, do us all a favour and stay home.  If you’re not feeling well, drink plenty of fluids, get into bed (alone, thank you very much) and stay there.  Write me a letter, instead.  Send me an email.  Text me.  Call me.  But do not come near me.  Keep your bacteria to yourself.  Okay?

Because so far, so good.  Knock on wood.  And I’d like to keep it that way.  Know what I’m sayin’?  Afraid to spell it out for you, in case I jinx myself.  Know what I’m sayin’?

Good.  Glad we understand each other.

Frankly, I’m tempted to just do a Howard Hughes.  Become a complete recluse.  Just live by myself, with my furry friends, in a germ-free zone.  Perfectly climate-controlled, too.

At which point I won’t give a damn about the weather.  Let it snow.  Let it snow.  Let it snow.

14 thoughts on “Day 202. So Unpredictable

  1. Fantastic plan. You know the farmer’s almanac is apparently correct 80-85% of the time, and their predictions can be made years in advance? And they’ve been doing it since 1818. Frankly the weatherman needs to pull his socks up!

  2. I share your pain! My step son has a degree in meteorology and says that the best forecasting is done by old timers who are knowledgeable about the local environment. It beats all the gadgets. He is usually more accurate than the TV folks. Thanks for the smile and no kissy kissy!

  3. Meteorology was my major in college, and I even have the (unused) diploma to prove it, so I have a bit of insight into weather forecasting that most others don’t have. I could do a whole post on misconceptions people have about the weather, but just to summarize…

    1. Most of the “weatherpeople” on TV are hacks. I personally know one weatherman I interned with back in the day who is now a big shot personality on The Weather Channel, and he had zero meteorology background when he was hired then. That doesn’t mean they’re unreliable, but they’re not the experts they want you to believe they are….

    2. Weather can vary much more than people think over a small area. This is especially true with precipitation events/non-events, and absolutely true for snow events. Since forecasts are usually made for a metropolitan area, forecasters have to “average out” what they think will occur. A few miles can make the difference between a foot of snow and “where the hell was that storm they said we were gonna get?” and if a storm veers just slightly north or south or slows down or speeds up even a tad, it can remarkably change the entire storm projection…

    3. We as humans have a bad gauge of temperature because we are used to looking at thermometers at banks, on our porch, and in our cars, and none of those are even remotely accurate… the temperature we always hear about on TV is measured at the airport under “official” conditions, which is away from the elements, including the sun and wind. This throws our grasp of what a certain temperature feels like off, and the more extreme the temperature, the less likely the temperature our body thinks it is will match what the official thermometer says it really is.

    Sorry for the long comment, but you obviously hit on a subject I feel pretty strongly about. While I wound up taking another path due to a lack of opportunities, I still feel a bit for my former forecasting brethren, who don’t have it easy at all because no forecast will ever be 100% perfect for everyone…. 🙂

    • Well who knew we had an expert in our midst? Thanks for clarifying. Seriously. I am not being a smart ass. If that’s your passion, don’t give up. Keep trying. And when you know a storm’s heading my way, give me a little heads-up, okay? 🙂

      • LOL, I’ve probably forgotten more than I ever learned. It’s been a long time ago, but I do recall some of the lessons I learned from all of those class forecasting contests. I think I much more enjoy the perspective I have now of witnessing the panic buying that occurs when the big storm is predicted that never happens… 🙂

      • Oh that would definitely be funny! A good source of inspiration for some of your blog posts I guess, too 🙂

  4. I think, too, we’ve become so out of tune with the natural world, that we fail to register shifts in the weather as well. Farmers are good at it. As a gardener, I’ve gotten better at it. You can feel temperature drops, a shift in the wind, clouds sliding in, the smell right before a rain – now my bones ache before snow or rain because of the change in humidity. I don’t even watch the weather reporting anymore, because you’re right, it seems to be pretty inaccurate!

    • Yes, I can see how gardeners can be good at it. And the Farmers’ Almanac is pretty damn accurate. And sadly, the older we get the more our body’s tell us (damn it). I guess having a corner apartment, 15 stories up makes it more difficult for me. Up here a slight breeze sounds like a hurricane’s brewing. And even a dandruff-like sprinkling of snow blows around like we’re having a blizzard. So my inclination is to over-dress to begin with. Then factor in an inaccurate weather report and, well, you know the rest …

    • I very much appreciate this. Mostly I appreciate that you like my blog. That means everything to me.

      I have been lucky enough to have been given many awards. So many, not too long ago I wrote a post (accepting an award) saying, in so many words, i felt I had received more than my fair share; and, instead, would like other bloggers to fet their share of the spotlight.

      I still feel the same way. Ironically, though, this morning a blogger nominated me for an award I have decided to accept — because it directly relates to a blog I wrote yesterday. He gave it to me in a lighthearted way and I am accepting it in that spirit.

      Please do not think I do not appreciate that you want to recognize my writing. Because that would not be true. But I have already received the beautiful blogger award once. And it would really make me feel good if you would honour someone who is every bit as good a writer (or photographer or artist etc) as you think I am. But no one’s acknowledged it yet.

      It takes a lot of courage for people, especially non-professionals, to show up here and bare their souls. And these awards go a long way in building their confidence.

      I hope you understand and appreciate where I’m coming from. Thanks again. And thanks for reading my blog regularly.

  5. I remember years ago, when my children were still in elementary school, a forecast assuring a huge snow storm overnight and into the morning. The children stayed up late that night, knowing that school would be cancelled the following day. Guess the ending? There were many sleepy children in school the next morning.

    • 🙂 I know! It happens all the time. Honestly I’d rather not know. Or think I know. It’s better to just wing it, I think.

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